According to The Economist, vacancies are up, and unemployment remains high. I think it's safe to say SOME people are staying on unemployment and not taking a good job when they see it. Time to stop extending benefits.
See the link here
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Monday, April 19, 2010
Unemployment Benefits
Are people using their unemployment benefits to put off looking for work? Probably. Does it matter? Probably not.
Consider this - assume there are enough resources to feed 500 people in a town of 2500. ( not coincidentally, this is also about the ratio of job openings to job seekers.). Now let's say the government steps in and distributes some of that resource, or a suitable replacement. What may happen is some townspeople stop going out to collect that resource since they are now being supplied. The problem is STILL the resource shortage, not the fact that the townspeople have stopped going to collect it.
It is much the same for jobs. If we were facing a shortage of workers, we would see wages creep up to attract them. This is not occurring, which tells me that whether people seek work on unemployment or not is irrelevant. The fact is, as long as job openings are much fewer than job seekers, continued unemployment benefits are the best way to keep money flowing. The cbo agrees:
see page 9 here:
http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11353/3-17-10-NLGA.pdf
Consider this - assume there are enough resources to feed 500 people in a town of 2500. ( not coincidentally, this is also about the ratio of job openings to job seekers.). Now let's say the government steps in and distributes some of that resource, or a suitable replacement. What may happen is some townspeople stop going out to collect that resource since they are now being supplied. The problem is STILL the resource shortage, not the fact that the townspeople have stopped going to collect it.
It is much the same for jobs. If we were facing a shortage of workers, we would see wages creep up to attract them. This is not occurring, which tells me that whether people seek work on unemployment or not is irrelevant. The fact is, as long as job openings are much fewer than job seekers, continued unemployment benefits are the best way to keep money flowing. The cbo agrees:
see page 9 here:
http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11353/3-17-10-NLGA.pdf
Friday, March 26, 2010
The Health Insurance Mandate
Other things the government "forces" you to buy:
Mortgages, water heaters, hybrid cars ... In all cases, all other things equal, you will pay more tax if you don't buy one of these. The same thing occurs if you don't buy health insurance. Questioning the constitutionality of something that is effectively the same as raising taxes and offering a tax credit for health insurance is ridiculous.
There are many things to dislike about this bill, the mandate is NOT one of them. Keeping the mandate and pre-existing condition portions of the bill does not make Republican favored reforms impossible (never mind that Republicans used to favor the mandate see here, here, and here.).
Within the confines of the general bill, Republicans can still push to lower the Cadillac tax threshold (all the way to 0 is my preference), move more people from employer sponsored health insurance to the exchanges - especially from small businesses, and allow and promote high deductible health plans. The Republicans' gamble on a Democrat failure and refusal to negotiate has left us with a bill to the left of where it could have been, but it's not too late to fix it.
Mortgages, water heaters, hybrid cars ... In all cases, all other things equal, you will pay more tax if you don't buy one of these. The same thing occurs if you don't buy health insurance. Questioning the constitutionality of something that is effectively the same as raising taxes and offering a tax credit for health insurance is ridiculous.
There are many things to dislike about this bill, the mandate is NOT one of them. Keeping the mandate and pre-existing condition portions of the bill does not make Republican favored reforms impossible (never mind that Republicans used to favor the mandate see here, here, and here.).
Within the confines of the general bill, Republicans can still push to lower the Cadillac tax threshold (all the way to 0 is my preference), move more people from employer sponsored health insurance to the exchanges - especially from small businesses, and allow and promote high deductible health plans. The Republicans' gamble on a Democrat failure and refusal to negotiate has left us with a bill to the left of where it could have been, but it's not too late to fix it.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Where in the Constitution is There a Guarantee for Health Care?
Consider the state of medicine in the late 1700s. The Founding Fathers may have been smart guys, but why would they have anything meaningful to say about health care? It had only been 25 years since barbers were legitimately doing amputations. Physicians still balanced humors. Medical licensing did not happen until 25 to 50 years later. The Constitution is a living document because they KNEW it wasn't perfect.
Fair and Balanced?
Wonder if they would cover a Democrat holding up nominations because they wanted pork for their home state?
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/white-house-blasts-shelby-hold-on-nominees/
Stories on Shelby's move are conspicuously absent on Fox's site:
http://www.foxnews.com/search-results/search?q=shelby
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/white-house-blasts-shelby-hold-on-nominees/
Stories on Shelby's move are conspicuously absent on Fox's site:
http://www.foxnews.com/search-results/search?q=shelby
Really?
A lot of conservative economists seem to think that the unemployment rate is stubbornly high because of uncertainty created from the cap and trade and healthcare bills being debated in congress. So as I drive from strip mall to strip mall in my hometown, noticing there are at least 2, sometimes more, businesses shuttered I have to marvel at how disconnected from reality they are.
We are in the midst of a debt crisis - is it so unbelievable that over-leveraging of commercial businesses is still responsible for continued unemployment? No, it's not because of "uncertainty" created by government. It's because there's no dang customers! Businesses were so leveraged, based on everyone thinking housing prices would keep going up, that they were running razor thin profit margins in the best of times. Take away 20% of those customers in a matter of months and they cannot pay off their loans anymore. That, combined with banks now unwilling to refinance these businesses means none can keep their doors open, much less worry about hiring because of the uncertainty created by congressional bills.
---------------
Update:
The real problem?
no customers.
We are in the midst of a debt crisis - is it so unbelievable that over-leveraging of commercial businesses is still responsible for continued unemployment? No, it's not because of "uncertainty" created by government. It's because there's no dang customers! Businesses were so leveraged, based on everyone thinking housing prices would keep going up, that they were running razor thin profit margins in the best of times. Take away 20% of those customers in a matter of months and they cannot pay off their loans anymore. That, combined with banks now unwilling to refinance these businesses means none can keep their doors open, much less worry about hiring because of the uncertainty created by congressional bills.
---------------
Update:
The real problem?
no customers.
Friday, December 11, 2009
national debt ceiling
Republicans are up in arms about the Democrats wish to attach a debt ceiling increase to a defense funding bill. For your reference, here are the times Republicans have increased the debt ceiling:
March 29, 1996
110 Stat. 875 Increased the debt limit to 5,500.0
August 5, 1997
111 Stat. 648 Increased the debt limit to 5,950.0
June 28, 2002
116 Stat. 734 Increased the debt limit to 6,400.0
May 27, 2003
117 Stat. 710 Increased the debt limit to 7,384.0
November 19, 2004
118 Stat. 2337 Increased the debt limit to 8,184.0
March 20, 2006
120 Stat. 289 Increased the debt limit to 8,965.0
It is interesting, however, that the Republicans DID have standalone votes on increasing the debt ceiling vs. attaching it to somewhat unrelated bills. While that as commendable, it hardly qualifies Republicans as fiscally responsible. Thus I will continue to be sick to my stomach whenever a member of either party ends a sentence with "our children and grandchildren" in reference to the debt.
March 29, 1996
110 Stat. 875 Increased the debt limit to 5,500.0
August 5, 1997
111 Stat. 648 Increased the debt limit to 5,950.0
June 28, 2002
116 Stat. 734 Increased the debt limit to 6,400.0
May 27, 2003
117 Stat. 710 Increased the debt limit to 7,384.0
November 19, 2004
118 Stat. 2337 Increased the debt limit to 8,184.0
March 20, 2006
120 Stat. 289 Increased the debt limit to 8,965.0
It is interesting, however, that the Republicans DID have standalone votes on increasing the debt ceiling vs. attaching it to somewhat unrelated bills. While that as commendable, it hardly qualifies Republicans as fiscally responsible. Thus I will continue to be sick to my stomach whenever a member of either party ends a sentence with "our children and grandchildren" in reference to the debt.
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